Simulating Wheat Yield under Changing Temperature Carbon Dioxide and Solar Radiation Levels in Bangladesh
wheat yield, CERES-wheat model, solar radiation, temperature, co2 concentration, bangladesh.
Abstract
The wheat crop in the tropical region will be most sufferers because of increased temperature in future. Calibrated and validated DSSAT (CERES-Wheat) model was used to evaluate the impact of increased temperatures (1-3 o C), elevated CO 2 (450 and 550 ppm) levels and radiation changes (5% and 10% increase and decrease) on the yield of wheat in Bangladesh. The highest grain yield of 5194 kg ha -1 was obtained from BARI Gom-28 followed by BARI Gom-27 (4866 kg ha -1 ) and BARI Gom-26 (4573 kg ha -1 ) under existing temperature conditions. Wheat yield at Gazipur increased with elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration but decreased with the increase in temperature. On an average, 11.95, 18.97 and 22.82 percent yield reductions were observed with 1, 2 and 3-degree rise in temperatures, respectively under ambient CO 2 level at Gazipur. About 2-4% yield compensations are likely if the CO 2 level is increased up to 550 ppm. In Dinajpur area, grain yield of wheat (BARI Gom-28) also reduced by about 6-25% depending on temperature rise.
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2018-04-30
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